Eurovision: Semi-final 1 - pointless predictions

Confused: Lithuania's Andrius Pojavis.

Eurovision kicks off tonight in Malmö. The real voting actually started last night, with the second full rehearsal of the show, AKA the jury final. Belgium did their song twice, due to technical problems. The international juries have cast their votes based on these performances, so half the votes are done and dusted already.

Statistically, it's easier this year to predict the ten songs that will make it through, as we have fewer songs than last year. And this semi-final is easier than the second, as we only have sixteen songs; on Thursday there will be one more.

So, sixteen songs, with ten going through. All we have to do is pick the six who won't make it, right? Even a person who hasn't heard any of the songs will get four right, as it's impossible to do any worse than that.

The problem with this semi-final is that it's probably the weakest ever, since the format was introduced, with some really poor songs and a low level of variety. Thank goodness SVT successfully lobbied the EBU Reference Group (which runs Eurovision policy) to abolish the draw for running order, so they had the freedom to program the show in a way which would, in theory, make a better television event. However, they did have a draw, before many of the songs were chosen, to determine in which half of each semi the countries would perform. For semi 1, this unfortunately produced a first half of eight songs which ended up as seven female soloists and one male group. So, from the start, SVT had to make the best of a bad job and did the only thing they could - they stuck the Croatian men at song four, in the middle of the solo women. This alone will probably see Croatia through - but they do have a memorable song as well, so they should be okay. They're then followed by a run of five which are arguably the five most interesting songs, all in a row. So the strong section runs from song 5 to song 9, encompassing Denmark (favourites to win the whole shebang), Russia (sickeningly schmaltzy ballad), Ukraine (possibly the contest's strongest singer), Netherlands (my favourite of the whole 39) and Montenegro. The latter isn't everyone's cup of char, but as there's a shortage of brain-numbing bassline dubstep rap in this contest, it stands out like a throbbing thumb, and will hopefully liven up the final, but those in Malmö seem to think it's a borderline qualifier.

When we played this prediction game after the Boom Bang-A-Bang preview party in Manchester last month, based on watching the official videos, I was only able to name five qualifiers straight away. I then added a sixth. Then I was stuck. I thought that only six really deserved to make the final, and I grudgingly threw in four more to make up my ten predicted qualifiers. Inevitably, during the rehearsal process, some songs have risen through the ranks because of good rehearsals, unexpectedly good vocals or just the mind-numbing repetition which makes journos and fans think something is good on the ninetieth hearing, forgetting that most of Europe will only get to hear it once. Estonia seems to be the case in point for this one. Stuck at song two, in Estonian, I don't get it, but apparently Birgit's performance is very good.

So, we can rule IN:

04 Croatia
05 Denmark
06 Russia
07 Ukraine

11 Belarus

13 Ireland


We can rule OUT:

01 Austria

03 Slovenia

10 Lithuania

14 Cyprus
15 Belgium


That leaves us with just five in the grey area, from which we need to pick four more:

02 Estonia

08 Netherlands
09 Montenegro

12 Moldova

16 Serbia

It's probably worth mentioning at this point that the three automatic finalists who vote in this first semi are Italy, Sweden and the United Kingdom. For the songs in the grey area, this may give the edge to Estonia, who could pick up points from all three. I think the UK and Sweden will like Anouk for the Netherlands. Serbia and Montenegro are both helped by having each other, plus Croatia and possibly Slovenia, Moldova and Belarus to give them points. As we've ruled out songs 14 (Cyprus - no friends here) and 15 (Belgium - terrible, by all accounts), I simply can't leave out Serbia at song 16 (the end). The last song usually gets through, and it seems inconceivable that the final three songs could all fail. 

I've concluded that the one I'll leave out is Moldova, despite my love for Aliona Moon's hair. They don't have Romania to help them out with a 12 this time. I should add that friends in Malmö see Moldova qualifying, so I'm sticking my neck out here and favouring Montenegro's appeal to the youth vote instead.

So, to clarify, my predicted ten finalists are:

*
02 Estonia
*
04 Croatia
05 Denmark
06 Russia
07 Ukraine
08 Netherlands
09 Montenegro
*
11 Belarus
*
13 Ireland

*

16 Serbia

If there's a shocker, it will be Lithuania qualifying. No one seems to like it, but he's cute (see above) and the UK always gives Lithuania big points. We will again. They've qualified at least twice before when no one has rated their song. It will really throw a spanner in the works if he gets through.

One final thing to add. I haven't watched ANY rehearsal videos. I've also read no more than a handful of rehearsal reviews, so this is based entirely on my initial impressions of the songs from ages ago, the videos, my own memory/analysis of former voting patterns and statistics, plus facebook comments from friends in Malmö. It will be interesting to see if this proves any more accurate than the predictions I've made in past years after attending most of the rehearsals in the hall, which have usually led to me getting eight right, occasionally seven, once nine, but never ten. We shall see. Enjoy the show!