Eurovision - tonight's final

It's all about the music, remember, so try not to think of the above photos when you are watching Azerbaijan, Georgia and Ireland tonight. (They're songs 20, 25 and 26 respectively, in the order they appear here.)

By all accounts (and pictures) from rehearsals yesterday, tonight's Eurovision final is going to be pretty special. Even for those who watch it to take the piss and think all the songs are rubbish, there are things happening tonight which will delight many a Eurovision party across Europe, and I think especially the UK audience. I'm not going to say too much, but there's an Olympic-style opening, a new song from ABBA's Benny and Björn, more Lynda Woodruff and something special from her alter ego, Sarah Dawn Finer, which has had people in tears already. 

I was really hoping that Bonnie Tyler might get as high as the top fifteen tonight. I thought that would be the best we could hope for, given that the song is a grower, not a shower. But then, last night, the tweets started flying in during the jury final. "Awful start for Bonnie", "Bonnie lost it at the start but picked up" and, even worse, "A possibly drunk Bonnie Tyler gives her worst performance of the week in the jury final". My heart sank. It's Eurovision 2011 all over again, when Blue did a vocally dodgy jury final performance and hardly picked up any jury votes, meaning that their highly respectable 5th place from Europe's televoters from a much better Saturday performance could only pick them up to 11th place overall. So, it looks like a lot of our points have gone AWOL already, unless the juries were very forgiving and really like the song. We shall see.

I've only placed three bets for tonight, as Paddy Power have restricted their each way payout this year to top three, rather than their usual top four. (I wish I knew why.)

It seems too obvious to go for Denmark, and there's little money to be gained, but I think it will be there or thereabouts, so I've done it anyway. There'll be a resigned sense of anti-climax if the favourite all year ends up winning again, just as Loreen and Alexander Rybak did. The Danish final was my first exposure to any of this year's songs, way back in the snowbound depths of Winter. (I hadn't paid any attention to the Swiss and Albanian songs that had already been picked.) As soon as I saw Emmelie's performance, before it had even won in Denmark, I said, "This could win Eurovision." Then it won that night and I was pleased. But I always hoped something better would come along and replace it as favourite or 'more obvious winner', but nothing has, and that's a shame, but hardly Denmark's fault. It's an immediate song, very well performed. It will be fine if it wins, but is it just a bit too much like an Irish entry from the '90s, or is that WHY it will win?

Azerbaijan is definitely one of the performances of the night, as well as best shirt-wearer, best muscle, best eyebrows, best YouTube fitness videos, best shirtless photos in the gym etc. If you believe the much-touted idea that Azerbaijan won in 2011 because Turkey failed to progress from their semi-final, allowing Azerbaijan to suck up all the votes that would automatically have gone Turkey's way, then you'll be justified in thinking they're going to do it again. With a better song tonight, and a man in a box, they could do it again, and fans will be horrified.

Ireland is the performance that stuck in my head most from the semi-finals. It had everything. Leather, nipples, muscles, drums, camp dancing and, above all, a solid vocal on a modern track from the lovely Ryan. I'd be overjoyed if this being in the final slot sees it win. And remember, the only other time Eurovision was held in Malmo:, Ireland won!

Ideally, I'd like a first time country to win tonight, so if Iceland, Malta or Georgia manage it, I will be planning my holidays next year. The latter two will have to up their game from Thursday though, where both were a bit disappointing.

If not a first time country, then the Netherlands would be my choice. They have my favourite song this year, by a mile, but it is not suited to an arena.

I feel sure that the UK's televote will put Greece top again. (It's Greece. It's a drinking song. Two reasons for the UK to love it.) The UK jury will probably peg it back though, so Greece may not get our douze points, but they'll be close.

I'll be in a pub in Birmingham. The same one where we watched Alexander Rybak win. I'm in charge of scoring. Lordi help us! Enjoy the show!