Nineteen Eurovision tracks hit the UK iTunes top 200

UK buyers have been snapping up Eurovision tracks on iTunes throughout Eurovision's 59th anniversary day (Sunday 24 May). And not just the songs that were competing! Just over 24 hours after Eurovision finished, these are the tracks which are still hanging on in the UK’s iTunes top 200.

With streaming now included in the UK chart, it’s very hard to say now how much impact Måns Zelmerlöw will be able to have in the Official Singles Chart next Sunday. It seems unlikely he will match Loreen’s #3 hit of three years ago. It also seems unlikely that any of the others will make the top 40, except perhaps Belgium.

All of the top 11 in Saturday’s final are currently in the top 200. The most successful song which isn’t is Azerbaijan’s, which finished in a surprisingly low 12th place.

Whatever happens to Electro Velvet as the week goes on, they seem to be selling on a par with Molly last year and much, much better than Bonnie Tyler or Engelbert did.

UK iTunes (Snapshot taken at 00:40, Monday 25/05/15):

04 & 62 Heroes – Måns Zelmerlöw (Sweden, winner)
19 Rhythm Inside – Loïc Nottet (Belgium, 4th)
34 Still In Love With You – Electro Velvet (UK, 24th)
38 & 79 A Million Voices – Polina Gagarina (Russia, 2nd)
43 Tonight Again – Guy Sebastian (Australia, 5th)
60 Golden Boy – Nadav Guedj (Israel, 9th)
67 & 102 Love Injected – Aminata (Latvia, 6th)
88 Firestorm – Conchita Wurst (Interval song)
91 A Monster Like Me – Mørland & Debrah Scarlett (Norway, 8th)
96 Beauty Never Lies – Bojana Stamenov (Serbia, 10th)

105 Grande Amore – Il Volo (Italy, 3rd)
114 Warrior – Nina Sublatti (Georgia, 11th)
122 You Are Unstoppable Conchita Wurst (Interval song)
133 I Am Yours – The Makemakes (Austria, =26th/last)
142 Black Smoke – Ann Sophie (Germany, =26th/last)
155 This Time – Monika Linkytė & Vaidas Baumila (Lithuania, 18th)
169 Building Bridges – The ESC Vienna All Stars featuring Conchita Wurst, Left Boy, Arabella Kiesbauer, Mirjam Weichselbraun, Alice Tumler, Die Wiener Sängerknaben, The Suparar Kids & The ORF Radio Symphony Orchestra (Intro song)
193 Amanecer – Edurne (Spain, 21st)
197 One Thing I Should Have Done – John Karayiannis (Cyprus, 22nd)

Eurovision final: Why I’ve had to reassess my bets

Still flushed with my 48p and £2.52 betting profits on the two semi-finals, giving a neat £3.00, it’s time to look at the bets I’ve already placed on the final.

I placed a bet on Australia to win (no each way option was available at the time) on 11 February; as soon as their participation was announced. Even then, not knowing who their entrant would be or what the song would be, the bookies weren’t taking any chances, and it was only available at 8/1. They’re actually 9/1 today, drifting out again after their odds had been shorter in recent weeks.

In March, I did three each way bets, on Israel at 100/1, the UK at 25/1 and Sweden at 4/1.

This week, all FOUR of those countries have drawn the first half of the final, in theory making wins from any of them less likely. However, with most of the good, uptempo songs being in the first half and the second half being a snoozefest, maybe the winner will come from the first half after all?

Anyway, I’ve also done Montenegro and Hungary to finish in the top ten, to add a bit of extra interest.

I’m not going to forecast who I think will win, because it’s too hard to say what the impact of the producers’ running order will be. I will hate it if Russia win, but be ecstatic if it’s Belgium and rich and ecstatic if it’s Israel, my favourite of all 40 songs this year.

It was Estonia, Hungary and Romania which really came across to me from the first semi-final, watching on TV. From the second semi-final, it was Lithuania, Montenegro, Norway, Israel, Latvia, Sweden, Cyprus and Slovenia which stood out. I expect them all to do well tonight.

As for the UK song, I liked it within twenty seconds of it being revealed on the red button show. It could go anywhere tonight, but it won’t be last. I’m sure of it. We’re not helped by being put in the fifth slot, but as a party tune, I think it could do surprisingly well. We’ll see.

Enjoy the show, which will end after midnight in Austria, which will then be Eurovision’s 59^th anniversary, 24th of May. Bonne anniversaire, l’Eurovision! 

Smug

Allow me my moment, please.

Ten predictions, ten bets, ten wins!
I've never predicted 10/10 before.

And my favourite song this year, Israel's, looked and sounded absolutely brilliant tonight.
I'm a happy bunny.

Eurovision: tonight's 2nd semi-final - more pointless predictions

If the three hapless hosts (the ones who weren't Ms Cunty Sausage) had been honest in Tuesday's semi-final, they would've come right out at the start and said, "We're only putting eight of tonight's songs through to the final, and that's pushing it, because none of the others are good enough."

That would've left 12 places free for tonight's much better selection of songs and given us a better final on Saturday. However, it didn't happen, so some of the crap had to go through and some better tunes will stare disappointment in the face later tonight.

I correctly predicted eight of the ten qualifiers here on Tuesday afternoon. On the night, after watching all sixteen songs, I predicted nine correctly, because I added Hungary to my qualifiers and ditched Moldova, which turned out to be an accurate double move. I was only scuppered by believing that Finland was different enough to get through, and that being after the ad break was enough to kill off Greece, (as it was to end Denmark's Eurovision).

So, predicting tonight. The top and bottom seem easy, but there are five in the middle fighting for two places, I reckon.

Let's immediately rule out San Marino and Portugal. No one loves them, outside of Portugal and... well, just outside of Portugal.

Definitely qualifying, working from the end, are Slovenia, Cyprus, Sweden, Azerbaijan and Israel (my favourite song of all forty this year). That's five.

Norway is after a break, but so was Greece and this is so monstrously good that it has to qualify. Six.

Montenegro is superb, but has been placed in slot 5 and is noticeably devoid of any neighbours or allies (aside from Australia actually, with its Balkan decendants). But, I'm relying on the niche semi-final audience to like 'this kind of song' (and personally I really do), so that's seven.

Most of my friends are predicting success for Latvia, which would please me no end, so I'll make that number eight.

That leaves us with five songs to fill two remaining places, and they're skewed towards the beginning of the show; Lithuania, Ireland, Malta, Czech Republic, Iceland, Switzerland and Poland.

I would never normally discount the last song to perform. After all, only two end songs in fifteen semi-finals have failed to qualify since 2008, and one of those, from Moje 3, was 11th. Only De Toppers have had a disaster from last slot, so we could conclude that unless your song is cheesy rubbish or in Serbian, the last song will always get through. But confidence in Poland seems low from friends and media, due to the song just not being strong enough and a disappointingly weak choice from the organisers with which to end the show. However, with Germany, Ireland and the UK all voting tonight, I'm going to keep the faith and say Poland will do it. I'm also going to pick Lithuania, because people will love it anyway, it'll get the gay vote (antics on stage!) and there's also the UK and Ireland to give their traditional helping hands too.

That means I think Ireland, Malta, Czech Republic (which I'd love to see go through), Iceland and Switzerland are on their way home, along with Portugal and San Marino. I will now bet accordingly, using Paddy Power NOT to place a bet on Ireland. Sad, but that's the way the cookie crumbles.

Eurovision - tonight's first semi-final: some pointless predictions

It should be so easy. All we have to do tonight is eliminate six songs which don’t deserve to go to the Eurovision final. But it’s not. The level of disagreement from people in Vienna (including the poll in the media centre and separate predictions today from my friends via facebook) is high. All over the place, in fact.

So, let’s attack this logically and look at the songs which are definitely qualifying and those which are definitely not. Then we’ll examine those in the grey area in the middle. That’ll make it easier, right?

Definitely qualifying:

12 Russia (A detestably cynical, hypocritical song, but a well-performed vomit-inducer, by all accounts.)

07 Estonia (Competent and catchy, if his bored vocals don't turn off too many people at the start.)

And, er, that’s about it, on the basis of popular opinion.

Definitely NOT qualifying:

04 The Netherlands (A weak, repetitive song that sounds like it was written by and for Geordies, with its ‘why aye, aye, aye’ hook. If you can call it a hook. Plus a fairly poor allocation in the running order, although song 4 has qualified 5 times in 14 semi-finals since 2008.)

So, we can definitely say that there are THIRTEEN songs in the grey area. Oh cripes.

Okay, ones that MOST people seem to think will get through:

02 Armenia

15 Romania

16 Georgia

The last two by virtue of being the last two; the most successful positions, with 12 out of 14 qualifications for both slots (and Romania being not quite like anything else, plus diaspora vote). Armenia helped more by diaspora vote than by being much good, and they do have to get over the hurdle of song 2 failing to qualify in the last three semi-finals, but they probably will.

So, that gives us five qualifiers. Just five more to go.

Song 1 doesn’t perform as well as the rules of primacy and recency might have us think. It’s a 50:50 success rate over 14 semi-finals, but one of those was a jury pick of a song 1 which otherwise finished 13^th, so it’s really 6 successes and 8 failures. If we go by last year, both opening songs in the semis will get through. If we go by the year before, neither of them will. Ho hum. In Moldova’s favour is that it’s a bonkers routine with leather cops and a climbing frame. But people say Eduard doesn’t sing the song very well. Ho hum again. In the balance.

Belgium has the joint unluckiest slot of all to overcome as song 3 (only 4 successes out of 14 and just 2 qualifications from the last 8), but the quirky, minimalist song and fascinating set plus cute singer will surely overcome this. So that’s six.

Finland’s 85 second song may pass by so quickly that people don’t notice it, but the songs that stand out and are performed well (which this is) do tend to get through the semi-finals, so I think they will, just.

Then there’s a break, which may have a big bearing on what happens next. Given that Greece has its least voter-friendly entry of modern times, and has been given the slot of doom after the ads, which has killed off other middling entries, I’m going to stick my neck out and say that this is Greece’s first non-qualifier. They don’t have Cyprus to help them either, as they’re in the other semi-final.

Serbia seems to be ruled out by most of my friends, partly because Bojana’s vocals may be questionable. I’m trying to put aside my DESIRE to see this song in the final, because it’s upbeat and camp, with a genuinely positive message about difference. I think the gay vote, which is always seen more clearly in the semi-finals, and the voting of Australia, Austria, France and Spain, all of who like a bit of tacky pop from time to time, will see this over the line. I could be horribly wrong though.

Denmark is jolly pop that I would love to see in the final, but they too come after a break, so it’s a sad ‘no’ from me.

Hungary seems to be on a knife edge. Well-performed and well-intentioned, but dated and possibly finding it hard to keep the audience’s attention.

No one seems that interested in Belarus.

I don’t think much to Albania’s song at all, but they have enough neighbours in this semi and a late allocation, so I fear they’re undeservedly getting through.

I’m going to give Moldova the benefit of the doubt over Hungary, so my final ten predictions are:

Russia, Armenia, Estonia, Romania, Georgia

Belgium, Finland, Albania

Serbia, Moldova