Eurovision - tonight's first semi-final: some pointless predictions

It should be so easy. All we have to do tonight is eliminate six songs which don’t deserve to go to the Eurovision final. But it’s not. The level of disagreement from people in Vienna (including the poll in the media centre and separate predictions today from my friends via facebook) is high. All over the place, in fact.

So, let’s attack this logically and look at the songs which are definitely qualifying and those which are definitely not. Then we’ll examine those in the grey area in the middle. That’ll make it easier, right?

Definitely qualifying:

12 Russia (A detestably cynical, hypocritical song, but a well-performed vomit-inducer, by all accounts.)

07 Estonia (Competent and catchy, if his bored vocals don't turn off too many people at the start.)

And, er, that’s about it, on the basis of popular opinion.

Definitely NOT qualifying:

04 The Netherlands (A weak, repetitive song that sounds like it was written by and for Geordies, with its ‘why aye, aye, aye’ hook. If you can call it a hook. Plus a fairly poor allocation in the running order, although song 4 has qualified 5 times in 14 semi-finals since 2008.)

So, we can definitely say that there are THIRTEEN songs in the grey area. Oh cripes.

Okay, ones that MOST people seem to think will get through:

02 Armenia

15 Romania

16 Georgia

The last two by virtue of being the last two; the most successful positions, with 12 out of 14 qualifications for both slots (and Romania being not quite like anything else, plus diaspora vote). Armenia helped more by diaspora vote than by being much good, and they do have to get over the hurdle of song 2 failing to qualify in the last three semi-finals, but they probably will.

So, that gives us five qualifiers. Just five more to go.

Song 1 doesn’t perform as well as the rules of primacy and recency might have us think. It’s a 50:50 success rate over 14 semi-finals, but one of those was a jury pick of a song 1 which otherwise finished 13^th, so it’s really 6 successes and 8 failures. If we go by last year, both opening songs in the semis will get through. If we go by the year before, neither of them will. Ho hum. In Moldova’s favour is that it’s a bonkers routine with leather cops and a climbing frame. But people say Eduard doesn’t sing the song very well. Ho hum again. In the balance.

Belgium has the joint unluckiest slot of all to overcome as song 3 (only 4 successes out of 14 and just 2 qualifications from the last 8), but the quirky, minimalist song and fascinating set plus cute singer will surely overcome this. So that’s six.

Finland’s 85 second song may pass by so quickly that people don’t notice it, but the songs that stand out and are performed well (which this is) do tend to get through the semi-finals, so I think they will, just.

Then there’s a break, which may have a big bearing on what happens next. Given that Greece has its least voter-friendly entry of modern times, and has been given the slot of doom after the ads, which has killed off other middling entries, I’m going to stick my neck out and say that this is Greece’s first non-qualifier. They don’t have Cyprus to help them either, as they’re in the other semi-final.

Serbia seems to be ruled out by most of my friends, partly because Bojana’s vocals may be questionable. I’m trying to put aside my DESIRE to see this song in the final, because it’s upbeat and camp, with a genuinely positive message about difference. I think the gay vote, which is always seen more clearly in the semi-finals, and the voting of Australia, Austria, France and Spain, all of who like a bit of tacky pop from time to time, will see this over the line. I could be horribly wrong though.

Denmark is jolly pop that I would love to see in the final, but they too come after a break, so it’s a sad ‘no’ from me.

Hungary seems to be on a knife edge. Well-performed and well-intentioned, but dated and possibly finding it hard to keep the audience’s attention.

No one seems that interested in Belarus.

I don’t think much to Albania’s song at all, but they have enough neighbours in this semi and a late allocation, so I fear they’re undeservedly getting through.

I’m going to give Moldova the benefit of the doubt over Hungary, so my final ten predictions are:

Russia, Armenia, Estonia, Romania, Georgia

Belgium, Finland, Albania

Serbia, Moldova