Eurovision final: Why I’ve had to reassess my bets

Still flushed with my 48p and £2.52 betting profits on the two semi-finals, giving a neat £3.00, it’s time to look at the bets I’ve already placed on the final.

I placed a bet on Australia to win (no each way option was available at the time) on 11 February; as soon as their participation was announced. Even then, not knowing who their entrant would be or what the song would be, the bookies weren’t taking any chances, and it was only available at 8/1. They’re actually 9/1 today, drifting out again after their odds had been shorter in recent weeks.

In March, I did three each way bets, on Israel at 100/1, the UK at 25/1 and Sweden at 4/1.

This week, all FOUR of those countries have drawn the first half of the final, in theory making wins from any of them less likely. However, with most of the good, uptempo songs being in the first half and the second half being a snoozefest, maybe the winner will come from the first half after all?

Anyway, I’ve also done Montenegro and Hungary to finish in the top ten, to add a bit of extra interest.

I’m not going to forecast who I think will win, because it’s too hard to say what the impact of the producers’ running order will be. I will hate it if Russia win, but be ecstatic if it’s Belgium and rich and ecstatic if it’s Israel, my favourite of all 40 songs this year.

It was Estonia, Hungary and Romania which really came across to me from the first semi-final, watching on TV. From the second semi-final, it was Lithuania, Montenegro, Norway, Israel, Latvia, Sweden, Cyprus and Slovenia which stood out. I expect them all to do well tonight.

As for the UK song, I liked it within twenty seconds of it being revealed on the red button show. It could go anywhere tonight, but it won’t be last. I’m sure of it. We’re not helped by being put in the fifth slot, but as a party tune, I think it could do surprisingly well. We’ll see.

Enjoy the show, which will end after midnight in Austria, which will then be Eurovision’s 59^th anniversary, 24th of May. Bonne anniversaire, l’Eurovision!